EIA Predicts Higher Winter Heating Costs for Most Energy Sources

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The U.S. Energy Information Administration has released the October edition of its Short-Term Energy Outlook and 2018-2019 Winter Fuels Outlook, predicting that average household bills for most energy sources of home heating will rise this winter due to higher forecast energy prices.

While temperatures are expected to be roughly the same as last winter in much of the country, the EIA expects prices for home heating oil to increase by 20 percent. The prices of other sources of heating are also expected to increase, with natural gas bills expected to be up 5 percent, and electricity to be up 3 percent. Expenditures for homes that use propane are expected to be about the same as last winter.

Regarding wood heating, the EIA notes approximately 2.1 million households, or 2 percent of U.S. households, currently use cord wood or wood pellets as a primary residential space-heating fuel. The EIA estimates another 8 percent of households use wood as a secondary source of heat, making wood second to electricity as a supplementary heating fuel.

In 2015, the EIA said one in four rural households used wood for primary or secondary space heating, compared with only 6 percent of urban households. Wood use was most common in New England, where 21 percent of households used wood.

During the 2018-’19 winter, the EIA predicts approximately 2.11 million households will use wood as a primary heating fuel, down 3 percent when compared to last winter. This includes 369,000 households in the Northeast, down 15.2 percent; 511,000 households in the Midwest, down 4 percent; 523,000 households in the South, up 3.1 percent, and 703,000 households in the West, up 1.1 percent.

The STEO also addresses the use of biomass in electricity production. The EIA currently predicts wood biomass will be used to produce 118,000 MWh per day of electricity this year, increasing to 120,000 MWh per day next year. Waste biomass is expected to be used to generate 57,000 MWh per day of electricity this year, increasing to 58,000 MWh per day in 2019.

The electric power sector is expected to generate 88,000 MWh per day of power from biomass this year, including 48,000 MWh per day from waste biomass and 40 MWh per day from wood biomass. Next year, generation is expected to increase to 90,000 MWh per day, including 49,000 MWh per day from waste biomass and 41,000 MWh per day from wood biomass. Other sectors are expected to generate 87,000 MWh per day from biomass in both 2018 and 2019, including 78,000 MWh per day from waste biomass and 9,000 MWh per day from wood biomass.

The electric power sector is expected to consume 0.274 quadrillion Btu (quad) of waste biomass this year, increasing to 0.279 quad net year. The sector is also expected to consume 0.237 quad of wood biomass in 2018, increasing to 0.246 quad in 2019.

The industrial sector is expected to consume 0.168 quad of waste biomass this year, falling to 0.166 quad next year. The sector’s consumption of wood biomass is also expected to fall, from 1.468 quad in 2018 to 1.412 quad in 2019.

The commercial sector is expected to consume 0.45 quad of waste biomass and 0.084 quad of wood biomass in both 2018 and 2019.

The residential sector is expected to consume 0.399 quad of wood biomass this year, increasing to 0.42 quad next year.

Across all sectors, the consumption of waste biomass is expected to reach 0.489 quad in 2018, increasing slightly to 0.49 quad in 2019. The consumption of wood biomass, however, is expected to fall, from 2.189 quad in 2018 to 2.162 quad in 2019.

The electric power sector is expected to have 7,257 MW of biomass power capacity in place by the end of 2018, including 4,215 MW of waste biomass capacity and 3,042 MW of wood biomass capacity. By the end of 2019, biomass power capacity is expected to increase to 7,407 MW, including 4,206 MW of waste biomass capacity and 3,201 MW of wood biomass capacity.

Other sectors are expected to have 6,629 MW of biomass power capacity in place by the end of this year, including 872 MW of waste biomass capacity and 5,757 MW of wood biomass capacity. Capacity is expected to drop slightly by the end of 2019, with 6,620 MW of capacity expected to be in place, including 888 MW of waste biomass capacity and 5,732 MW of wood biomass capacity.